Sample Data Analysis - Nov 16
| School | Overall | Auxiliary | Percussion | Last Comp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramona HS (Ramona) Royal Alliance Marching Band | 64.200 | 67.00 | 57.00 | Nov 9 |
| Yorba Linda HS | 73.300 | 73.50 | 65.50 | Nov 14 |
| Venice HS | 68.000 | 70.00 | 68.00 | Nov 9 |
| Oak Park HS Eagle Brigade | 70.200 | 71.50 | 65.50 | Nov 2 |
| Redlands East Valley HS Marching Wildcats | 77.300 | 79.00 | 67.00 | Nov 14 |
| Valencia HS | 80.000 | 88.00 | 79.00 | Nov 9 |
Figure 2 is the lineup from the November 16 preliminary competition, organized by chronological order of performance. Let's focus on Yorba Linda HS, highlighted in yellow. Yorba Linda HS and Redlands East Valley have performed the most recently, on November 14. However, although YL has a higher score than Oak Park, the latter has not competed since November 2 and the deficit is only by 3 points. Thus, it would make sense that Oak Park ends up with a higher score in the end even though their score was lower to begin with, as they had more time to improve since their last performance. YL's score is also higher than that of Ramona and Venice, who have competed more recently. Valencia's score is extremely high and we have a low chance of challenging them.
So how does this apply to the greater competition in the division? By looking at this lineup and who we (Yorba Linda) are up against, we can predict that at the end of the competition, we will likely be above Ramona, but definitely below Valencia and likely Redlands. However, our position relative to Venice and Oak Park is difficult to say; although their scores are slightly below us prior to the competition, they both have had time to improve since then and the gap is very small.
After the November 16 competition, we can see the 12 schools who advanced to final championships on November 23 in Figure 1. As predicted, Valencia HS had a much higher score--in fact, they won first place. Redlands East Valley and Oak Park also made it to finals, with Redlands again outscoring Oak Park. Venice and Ramona both scored below us and did not make it.
Thus, during a real season as scores are collected in real time, one can see and even predict school placement by watching how scores change over time. As I (a former color guard member) usually compiled these spreadsheets during field and winterguard season for my team, I noticed that certain schools consistently tended to emerge on top year after year and let my team know who to look out for in show lineups.